Is Grade King?

The purpose of this analysis is to answer the question: “Is Grade King?”

I’ve heard this line often and am interested in correlating mined grade to cash flow from operations to see if there is any relationship.

I’ll start with a broad assessment, ignoring the obvious impact of mine type (UG/OP).

The chart shows a couple of interesting points. Pretium and Kirkland Lake are really in a league of their own in terms of reserve grade for producers with >200K oz per annum of production.

The chart isn’t that useful with these higher reserve grade operators. Let’s take them out.

The chart, with a 5 g/t cap looks as follows:

Moreover, unfortunately, there really isn’t any relationship between reserve grade and CFO/oz (darn). This isn’t that surprising as reserve grades aren’t mined grades and there are countless other factors that impact the profitability of an operation. I was hoping that grade would be king-enough to prove some relationship.

This investigation will require further analysis. While we’re at it. Let’s look at 2018 production.

The chart shows that, as expected, more gold production = more CFO. It’s interesting to note which operators fall above or below the trend line. Kirkland Lake, Newcrest, and Sibanye stand out as a strong performers while Anglo Gold Ashanti is a laggard.

The last chart we’ll look at is a comparison between 2018 CFO per oz produced vs. current enterprise value per ounce. Now we wouldn’t expect CFO to directly translate to enterprise value but I think that this chart is interesting because it provides commentary regarding how much reserve value is going to be captured by the company (or at least the market’s perception of it). The shading of the dots reflects the comparison between these two metrics.

The variation in this metric is very impressive. Take New Gold for example, in 2018 the CFO per oz was close $550 while the company’s enterprise value per reserve ounce is only $100/oz. As mentioned, there are innumerable other items to consider (asset quality, assets not in production, CFI, capital structure).

Not really sure how to conclude this. Relating grade to cash flow is going to be tricky.

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