Asymmetric Returns For This Gold Developer; Not For The Faint of Heart

Positive asymmetric returns are those with limited downside and much higher upside. This article looks at the prospects for a gold developer whose share price has been battered. Orca Gold is developing the Block 14 gold property located in Sudan. Their share price is down 40% YTD even after significantly advancing their flagship property.

In early November, Orca released the details of an updated feasibility study which describes an open pit operation producing 167K oz per annum. Reserves contain 80 million tonnes grading 1.11 g/t Au for 2.85M ounces. The property is expected to produce gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $789/oz. The after-tax NPV of the project is estimated to total $403M; at a 5% discount rate.

If you look at the chart below you will notice that the share price did not budge after the release of the study (early November) and the stock continued its downward march. So what’s the deal? The enterprise value of Orca is $37M and their 70% stake in Block 14 is worth US$282M. They are trading at 13% of the NPV5% of the property. This is a massive discount. The implied discount rate of the property is approaching 50%. So, the market is pricing in a serious chance that this asset does not make it to production.

This is interesting. The discount rate assumed for this property is egregiously high. Maybe the worst is already priced into the stock price?

So why is the market pricing in such a steep discount? Well, Sudan -the location of their asset- is still designated by the United States as a State Sponsor of Terrorism. In 2017 the U.S removed some of the economic sanctions for the country but it is unclear if financial institutions could lend money to Orca to fund the project (the government has a carried interest in the property). I think that as long as Sudan is on this list, Orca’s share price will suffer.

This is where it gets interesting. Sudan is progressing talks with the US to be removed from the terrorism sponsor list1 (which would remove the associated sanctions). If this were to occur, it’s reasonable to assume that Orca would be re-rated to a much higher level.

The project is probably still riskier than the typical gold mine. It’s located in the desert, away from infrastructure, needs a well field, and Sudan does not have an established mining workforce.

That being said, and as shown in the chart below, Orca is amongst the most discounted juniors out there with a near-term development project. This investment is not for the faint of heart. If talks with Sudan do not progress than the share price could easily continue to suffer. A successful resolution, however, could result in 1X share price appreciation. This is asymmetry.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *