Polaris North – Canarc Resources

I was thinking about investment frameworks today. I’ve never explicitly laid out my own process. If I had to I’d say the following points are the most important in my framework (mining related):

  • The project has to score well (decent grade, IRR, preferably in a good jurisdiction, tried and tested mining method, simple process). There can be complexity but the simpler the better.
  • Value has to be a concern. There’s so much uncertainty in junior investing. We need to get 3-10x payoffs on the winners to offset the inevitable losses.
  • Momentum. This one is tougher. I’m not sure where I stand on this. Revaluations happen fast.
  • Increasing base. This can mean production, resource, reserve. Not picky.
  • Preservation of ownership percentage. I get that dilution is going to occur. I’d just like to get under as many warrants and options as possible.

I was looking at some valuations today, single asset development projects.

One that jumped out at me was New Polaris. I’d not heard of Carnac resources until today. They released a technical report on New Polaris in March.

Valuation: They have an enterprise value of ~$9 million. The post-tax NPV5% is ~$210 million; works out to a EV/NPV value of less than 5%. Well this is interesting.

Now obviously production, if ever, is far out. Within the comparable peer group, however, these guys are cheap.

This is an example of the asymmetric returns that I like. What’s the worst that can happen? You lose 100%. What’s the upside here?

Now I’m not a chartist but there looks like there could be a tide change.

On the warrant and option from there’s not too much that is below the current stock price of $0.065/share.

So, this project is cheap. Has some momentum indicators and there’s not a lot of drag on the option/warrant front.

They have ~2M in cash and spent about the same last year. Not the worst cash balance out there but not the best.

Carnac has a mixed bag of miscellaneous projects. The only one that really stands out is New Polaris. ~10 g/t, historic mine, challenging infrastructure, challenging metallurgy (probably). Does not check the box as a simple project.

Overall, I think this is pretty interesting. Will watch.

Capital Allocation and Franco Nevada

What is the purpose of a corporation? Let’s not get into the stakeholder vs. shareholder debate. At the core, a corporation’s goal is to increase its shareholder’s wealth. Otherwise, why start the corporation? I’d only start a company if I believed this investment would yield more value (return) than a risk free asset. I’d want to be compensated for this risk as well, hopefully earning a materially higher return than a riskless asset.

A corporation’s purpose, while simple, is easily convoluted by countless factors. The owners of the corporation may not understand it in themselves. I’m not Stanley Druckenmiller but I’m no finance/business slouch either. After a couple thousand hours of studying/working in finance, I can honestly say that I’m only starting to build a picture of what I consider to be a “good” business. Why is this the case?

There’s so much noise. A company’s price and fundamentals are so detached. Who am I to say that a company with zero earnings is a bad company? The FANGs, they don’t earn much and yet they are the best performing stocks in the past decade. The fact that growth stocks don’t trade on fundamentals makes it easier for non-growth stocks to trade on the same basis. The market doesn’t hold them to account, don’t they see the difference?

I think Warren Buffet has it right. The Berkshire Hathaway owner’s manual states that their goal “is to maximize Berkshire’s average annual rate of gain in intrinsic business value on a per-share basis.” This makes sense. If I’ve got a dollar, I want to invest it in the area that’s going to give me the most dollars in return. Berkshire defines intrinsic value as the present value of future cash flows. They trade money. Trade 1 dollar for 1.08 dollars. Makes sense.

A $100 million investment with a $100 million NPV is subjecting your hard earned dollars to zero return. Now that doesn’t make sense. Who would do that?

Well, as far as I can tell Franco Nevada does this, and a whole-heck of the mining industry.

Why do I say this? Well let’s take a look at the financial statements for FNV for year end 2017.

Ok, so I’m a shareholder. How much money have I pumped into this company?

Wow! 6.5 Billion in total, the value has steadily marched higher over the past decade. Must be some good returns to justify this. Well, FNV has generated $836M in net income of the past ten years. That’s a pretty measly 1.88% on the contributed capital. Hmmmm.

But, but, they pay a dividend!

Yeah, they do. But it’s more than their net income.

So what does this really mean. Well FNV is paying out more than their making. Is this good business? Let’s keep issuing capital, take on some debt, and pay some dividends. More people see the dividend track record and subscribe. That’s an interesting cycle… sounds familiar. What’s the name for that?

Well, if you were a shareholder between 2007 and 2016 it hasn’t been good business. Earnings haven’t increased and the return on your equity has been pretty lousy.

But who cares! The stock price is going up.

And a big reason for that is steeper valuations from a PE perspective (note the chart above takes out PE ratios over 100). In an environment where your competition is miners with a destructive track record for capital allocation, you’re the best looking girl at the bar.

Now I’m not saying that the people that run FNV are bad miners. They just aren’t deploying capital in a fashion that produces high returns. But this begs the question, why are new players (triple flag, orion, osisko, sandstorm) entering the business? With competition, prospective returns surely aren’t going to go higher. The narrow margin of error may get pushed lower.

There’s also the question about why people own these stocks. I mean, it’s precious metals exposure and it’s certainly outperforming Barrick but common. Return on equity less than a LT treasuries. These are not risk free assets.